The Great Stock Rotation

Much has been made of the inflows into US equity markets in the last few weeks with the heralding of The Great Rotation that will lift us to Dow 36,000 and beyond. The only problem with this rather wonderful meme-du-jour (being the only thing left in the asset-gatherer’s armor since bottom-up and top-down fundamentals are nothing but collapsing near-term, hockey-stick mid-term flights of fantasy) is that, as BofAML notes, institutional investors have never (that’s a long time) sold as much stock as they have in the last 4 weeks – as retail has been piling in.

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On a four-week average basis, net sales by the Institutional clients group are the largest in our data history (since 2008). Private clients have been net buyers of US stocks on a four-week average basis since early June. Private clients’ net buying streak is currently their longest since late 2011.

So it would appear the ‘real’ great rotation is passing the hot-potato of liquidity-driven stocks from the ‘smart’ money to the ‘dumb’ money once again.

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