Bank of England Announces 7% Unemployment-Linked “Forward Guidance” But Credibility Questioned

Unconventional monetary policy is here to stay and similar to the Federal Reserve, the BoE is linking monetary policy to it’s unemployment levels. Quantitative Easing does not work, especially when we have so much debt but linking it to employment allows the financial terrorism games to continue as the employment numbers provided are anything but exact. By increasing the balance sheet of the BoE by £375 billion per year, we are putting that debt onto our children and their children. This is anything but sensible or financially prudent, how will we unwind this debt? The answer is, we won’t. This is a kick the can down the road approach, it will fail but at least we know who to blame. Courtesy of Zerohedge:

Moments ago the Bank of England’s Mark Carney, very much as expected and warned previously, announced for the first time as part of the BOE quarterly Inflation Report press conference (the full August inflation report can be found here) the official linkage of monetary policy outlook to unemployment and pledged to expand stimulus if needed as he tried to quell investor bets on higher interest rates. Specifically as part of the BOE’s forward guidance, Carney linked interest rates to a 7% unemployment threshold while forecasting that unemployment would be higher than 7% until at least Q3 2016, or in other words, no threat of an end of extraordinary monetary policy any time soon.

However, while the market enjoyed the announcement initially and sent cable 100 pips lower to 1.52, the initial dovish mood was quickly reversed after the market observed that Carney’s statement carried with it three “knock out clauses” which made the forward guidance far less explicit and put doubts into the market about the credibility of this latest monetary experiment as a result unwinding an initial 100 pip drop in cable and sending it over 200 pips higher from the lows.

Specifically:

  • the policy stance will depend on economic conditions, and will also be determined by the BOE’s inflation target which remains at 2%
  • the BOE’s guidance won’t hold if the CPI is seen 0.5% over 2% in the next 18-24 months the guidance won’t hold if the BOE’s council sees a financial stability threat
  • Carney refrained from overlooking the BOE’s inflation mandate and reiterated the bank’s commitment to price stability
  • Carney said that a prolonged period of low rates has stability risks, and added that the UK economy will undoubtedly face shocks in the future which further detracted from the credibility of forward guidance
  • Finally, the BOE forward guidance is not a change in the bank’s reaction function Carney clarified.

The combination of all these “credibility-questioning” clauses promptly unwound the initial currency weakness, and promptly sent the GBPUSD soaring over 200 pips in the opposite direction as some saw Carney’s remarks as far less of a “commitment” than previously expected.

image

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s