If you wish to make an alcoholic well and sober, you do not give him 50 bottles of vodka, a variety of mixes and 100 crates of desperado’s. If you do, you’re an idiot and an enabler. The US, UK, Euro et al economies are sick with two much debt and leverage, why would you make it worse through quantitative easing and POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) and expect it to solve the problem? If you wish to make a financial system wracked with debt healthier, you do not take part in QE and POMO. Well if you do, you’re an idiot, an enabler and criminally culpable.
Courtesy of The Hedge:
Back in 2010, when few still dared to question that the entire move in the market is predicted by the Fed’s daily POMO (then still on QE2), we laid it out, in a way so easy even a caveman could grasp it, how every tiny move in the stock market is nothing but a function of the Fed’s daily POMO on those days in which Bernanke would be directly injecting liquidity into the capital markets using his Primary Dealer frontmen. Since then nearly three years have passed, and thousands of POMO days. All of which brings us to this quarter’s Treasury refunding presentation, and specifically the section “Effects of policy and market structure” from the Presentation to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, in which we learn that we had in fact been right all along, and that perhaps for the first time ever, the Treasury admitted that not only “no one dares fight the Fed” but that, as expected, it is “all POMO.”
There, hidden on page 26, or slide 76 of 100, where the Treasury discusses “The Impact Of Monetary Policy”, the biggest “conspiracy theory” of all becomes merely the latest conspiracy fact. First, for corporate bonds…
But just as importantly, for stocks.
But most importantly, and tying it all together, POMO. Only this time, finally, the US Treasury finally admits it.
So, thanks to the US Treasury, we know that between January 2009 and April 2013, on days in which the Fed POMO was more than $5 billion, the stock market rose a total of 570 points or 54% of the upmove, on days in which the POMO was between $0 and $5 billion, the stock market gain was “only” 141 points or 15% of the upside, and when there was no POMO, the S&P gained… -51 points.
And like that, another conspiracy theory bites the dust. Are any left? Oh yes, Gold isn’t manipulated because alleging “gold manipulation” is unfit for polite, dignified society and is best left to the realms of the conspiracy theorists.