JP Morgan Reverses Commodity Position…Long on Gold

Looks like the tide is turning in the rigged commodity markets, courtesy of the fixers themselves, JPM:

Commodities: We have turned tactically long commodities and OW vs. cash and fixed income.

The strong rebound in J.P. Morgan’s global manufacturing PMI, improving physical demand and our economists’ first upgrade of Chinese growth expectations since February make us turn tactically overweight. This is especially important for base metals and copper in particular given China’s very large share of global metal demand and thus, we go overweight base metals and copper in addition to our longstanding energy overweight. We also close our underweight in precious metals given positive momentum, cleaner positions and the impending start to the debt ceiling negotiations. In our commodities portfolio, this leaves us OW energy and base metals, neutral precious metals and UW agriculture, where high prices coupled with better weather conditions compared to last year have led to a large increase in supply expectations.



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